Monday, October 30, 2006

 

Humboldt Business Council poll on the Marina Center

Just received an e-mail from them containing the following press release. Basically, it indicates a 59% support for the project in Eureka, with 22% opposing when a summary of the arguments are presented side-by-side (the information so far doesn't state whether both sides were consulted regarding the wording of the arguments for their side). Sounds pretty high to me, but I guess we'll find out how accurate the poll is a week from tomorrow. I do also have to say that the pro-project information is much more detailed than the opposition information, and question number 5 is classic push poll language. However, the support is indicated high even before you get to that language.

Marina Center Project Enjoys Widespread Support According to New Poll

Eureka, CA (10/30/06) --- The Humboldt Business Council (HBC), today (Oct. 30) released the entire results from a new poll of Eureka voters regarding the Marina Center project. The survey found widespread awareness and support for Security National Property’s mixed use project proposed on the former Union Pacific’s Balloon Track on the southern end of downtown.

The project includes office, retail, light manufacturing and residential housing on the 33 acre parcel. The proposed plan includes a clean up of the toxic contaminations to a standard that meets or exceeds state and federal environmental standards. Additionally the project includes a ten-acre wetland preserve, a Home Depot, a new home for the children’s Discovery Museum and walking and biking trails.

There has been considerable debate about the merits of the project with claims and counter claims dominating the civic dialogue.

“There are so many different opinions about the Marina Center project that we felt it was important to get a neutral reading of the attitudes of the Eureka community”, said Chris Crawford, the Humboldt Business Council chair.

The poll found that 75% of Eureka residents have a high awareness of the Marina Center with 64% supporting the project and 23% opposing the current plan.

When arguments are presented supporting and opposing the project, almost 2 of every 3 residents support the proposed Center.

“We presented neutral language about the plan to get an objective understanding of public attitudes. This was followed by a question that gave the strongest views from both sides”, said Crawford. “Our goal was to get unbiased results that would not be affected by the political views of the poll sponsor”.

The survey was conducted by national research firm, Fairbanks, Maslin, Maullin and Associates from October 26 –28, 2006. FMM&A is recognized as one of the top survey firms in California and has worked on hundreds of research projects throughout northern California and the state. The survey randomly interviewed 300 Eureka voters and has a margin of error of 5.7%. The poll in its entirety will be made available later this week for public review and inspection on the HBC website at www.Humboldtbiz.org

“We hope this survey is used by our city leaders to chart a positive course for this project”, Crawford concluded.

The decision to commission the poll came after a unanimous vote by the HBC membership.

# # #

FAIRBANK, MASLIN, MAULLIN & ASSOCIATES OCTOBER 26-28, 2006


EUREKA ISSUES SURVEY
220-2232
WFT2 N=300

MARGIN OF ERROR 5.7%

Time Began_____________

Time Ended_____________

Minutes________________

Hello, I'm ___________ from FMMA, a public opinion research company. I am definitely NOT trying to sell you anything. We are conducting a survey about issues that interest people living in Eureka, and we are only interested in your opinions. May I speak to______________? YOU MUST SPEAK TO THE VOTER LISTED. VERIFY THAT THE VOTER LIVES AT THE ADDRESS LISTED, OTHERWISE TERMINATE.

1. First, does anyone in this household work for a radio station, a television station, a newspaper, an advertising agency, for an elected official, or as a paid political campaign worker?

No---------------------------------------------- 100%

Yes---------------------------------- TERMINATE

DK/NA------------------------------ TERMINATE

2. Next, in November there will be an election for U.S. Senate, Governor and other state and local offices and ballot measures. How likely are you to actually vote in this election? Will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances 50-50 that you will vote, will you probably not vote, or will you definitely not vote?

Definitely vote--------------------------------- 95%

Probably vote----------------------------------- 3%

50-50--------------------------------------------- 2%

Probably not vote----------------- TERMINATE

Definitely not vote---------------- TERMINATE

(DON'T KNOW/NA)------------- TERMINATE

3. Have you seen or heard anything recently about the Marina Center? (IF YES, ASK: “Have you heard a great deal, something, or very little about it?”)

Yes, a great deal--------------------------- --57%

Yes, something----------------------------- --18%

Yes, very little ------------------------------ --11%

No, haven’t heard anything--------------- --13%

(DON'T READ) Don't know--------------- --0%


4. The Marina Center project would change zoning regulations in the 38-acre Balloon Track area to authorize the Marina Center, a retail, office and residential development, including a Home Depot. Would you support or oppose this proposal?

Support----------------------------------------- 64%

Oppose----------------------------------------- 23%

(DON'T READ) Need more info----------- 6%

(DON'T READ) DK/NA---------------------- 7%

5. Let me give you some more information about The Marina Center Project. It would include a new home for the children’s discovery museum, provide walking and biking trails, generate sales and property taxes by more than a million and a half dollars annually for city services, would clean up Clark Slough (SLEW) and create an eleven-acre wetlands preserve. Knowing this would you support or oppose the Marina Center Project?

Support----------------------------------------- 70%

Oppose----------------------------------------- 19%

(DON'T READ) Need more info----------- 5%

(DON'T READ) DK/NA---------------------- 6%

6. Now I am going to read you a pair of statements that have been made about the Marina Center Project. Please tell me which statement is closer to your opinion. Please choose just one even if it is hard to decide. (ROTATE)

[ ] The Marina Center project is a good idea because it would include environmental clean up that meets and exceeds all state standards, creates an eleven acre wetland preserve, provides a thousand quality jobs, builds affordable housing and retail stores, and generates additional revenue for public services including public safety.--------------------------------------------- 59%

OR

[ ] The Marina Center project is a bad idea because it inadequately cleans up the environment, would put a big box store on the last piece of Eureka’s waterfront property, hurts area businesses and will not benefit local residents, creates more traffic, and has circumvented the public process to decide the best use of the land.--------------------------------------------------------------------- 22%

(DON’T READ)

(BOTH)----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2%

(NEITHER)----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4%

(MAKES NO DIFFERENCE)------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2%

(DON'T KNOW/NA)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11%


Comments:
95% of survey respondents say they will "definitely" vote next Tuesday. Sure hope that's true. The rest of this is pure push-poll politickin' - hey, isn't HBC a 501C3 organization? I thought they were supposed to stay out of politics or risk losing their non-profit status.
 
300 on the poll. I wonder who they called. Employees of SNP? The real poll will be next Tuesday.
 
“We presented neutral language about the plan..." according to Chris Crawford, campaign manager and local partisan.

As to the HBC, they are running ads for their slate of candidates, that is, Arkely's slate of candidates, and no they do not need to file any paperwork because they are above the law, so don't go looking for any pesky disclosure forms with the county or the city.
 
Fair and honest Crawford style question:

5. Let me give you some more information about The Marina Center Project. It would include a new home for the children’s discovery museum, provide walking and biking trails, generate sales and property taxes by more than a million and a half dollars annually for city services, would clean up Clark Slough (SLEW) and create an eleven-acre wetlands preserve. Knowing this would you support or oppose the Marina Center Project?

---Gee, what's missing from this description?

Could it be the 145,000 sq ft Home Depot that when you include the required parking lot, will take up over half of the total footprint?!!?

(yes, we know, the home depot minus the 35,000 sq ft garden center is technically only 25% of the total space, too bad we can't just make that parking lot disappear).
 
95% of survey respondents say they will "definitely" vote next Tuesday. Sure hope that's true. The rest of this is pure push-poll politickin' - hey, isn't HBC a 501C3 organization? I thought they were supposed to stay out of politics or risk losing their non-profit status.

Well, that's 95% of those who were counted. Those who were less likely to vote were eliminated from the pool.
At least that's how I read it.
 
"How likely are you to actually vote in this election? Will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances 50-50 that you will vote, will you probably not vote, or will you definitely not vote?"

And 95% said they will "definitely" vote. Some of those people are telling fibs, good intentions or not. Statistically, maybe it doesn't matter to the survey.
 
Definitely vote--------------------------------- 95%

Probably vote----------------------------------- 3%

50-50--------------------------------------------- 2%

Probably not vote----------------- TERMINATE

Definitely not vote---------------- TERMINATE

(DON'T KNOW/NA)------------- TERMINATE

See, the definitely's, probably's, and 50-50s total 100 percent. The poll was terminated at that point for all the others. So 95% is simply a percentage of those who were asked more questions, ie. those with a 50% or greater chance of voting.
 
For all we know, that 95% represents less than half of the people they reached by phone. The point is, this is supposed to be a good sampling of those who will vote next week.
 
3:11 said:
"Fair and honest Crawford style question:"

Well, without taking sides here, unless polls are coming from an entity that is absolutely unbiased, then of course their polls are going to be leading. What about the CREG poll? Have they released the full poll, with answers and questions? I know Jeff Leonard challenged them to do so, but I'm not sure I've seen the results. I would like to see them and line them up next to this one.
 
Yes, CREG did release the questions and results.

INteresting that Leonard didn't ask for the Arkley's poll questions and results to be released.
 
What were they? It would be interesting to see them.(CREG's) that is. Also if there is an Arkley poll, I agree, it would be interesting to see.
 
Well, the CREG poll is about 5 months old. Here's the TS story on it.
 
Hi Eric,
That link is to Leonard challenging the poll. I just wish there was somewhere where I could see the whole poll and its results.
 
Yeah, I thought they had a website, but I can't find it.
 
This is weird. My phone just rang with someone from MRS or some such and had the SAME opening language from the poll you just posted. Unfortunately I didn't get past question 1.

Does that mean the poll is still going on? But they've already published results...
 
I don't think CREG ever publicly released ALL of their poll data.
 
This poll is pretty close to what I have seen out door knocking in Eureka.
 
CREG refused to release anymore than one question.
 
"Anonymous 4:45 PM said... Yes, CREG did release the questions and results."

Not even close. CREG refused to release their questions.

Who is financially behind CREG?

And why did CREG organize as a 501(c)?

CREG does not serve any charitable purpose outside of stopping Home Depot and the Arkley’s proposed Marina Center.

501(c) groups do not have to disclose donors or itemize spending.

One of the many reasons that Measure T was such a joke.
 
Unfortunately for CREG they have been barking up the wrong tree-its tough to admit I'll bet.
 
-from the pollsters website:
http://www.fmma.com/
All of FMM&A's research is custom-designed to fit each client's individual circumstances and needs.

(like only polling Republicans who voted 4 out of the last 4 elections)
 
Yeah, like I said, I find this poll difficult to believe. A little bit less of a difference, say 15 or 20 points, and I'd say maybe. But there are far too many left slate signs out for this poll to make sense. Of course, it's possible that some of them support the candidates but don't oppose the project, but these numbers still seem very much off.

But I could be wrong, and maybe the conservative slate will win by significant majorities next week. I just feel like I've been down this road before.
 
Alot of the signs are from lists of liberal land owners whose renters do not even vote. Kerrigan and Salzman put them up in tandem from past lists of HCDCC, Gallegos, Neely, Kerrigan and Measure T supporters. Same placements as the past, just different names. So don't be fooled. The only winner coming from this slate may be Bonnie. But I hope not.
 
How so neocon-like to attack your alleged opponent (CREG) as you are begin scrutinized (HBC). As I wrote before, next Tuesday will be the real poll.
 
Thanks for clarifying the methodology. I see what you mean, but Crawford's poll is still push-poll politicking, one week before an election.

As for CREG, it is a committee of the same (very local) non-profit organization that helped with the 1999 Wal-Mart fight. CREG has intentionally taken an educational approach to what, admittedly, has become a political issue. More than 1200 people have signed the CREG petition. The website is http://www.SaveEurekaWaterfront.org.

Regardless of who wins any of the local races, the EIR for this project is about due to be made public. With all the comments and input made during the city's "scoping" process, it will be interesting to see which specific issues will be addressed. How the issues are handled will be partly (at least) up to whoever wins the city council races and 4th district supervisor race (aka the local Coastal Commission seat) next week.

My impression of city staff, specifically Planner Sidnie Olsen, has been good. Keep your eyes out for the next public information -- probably after the election.

Land Use Planning is having it's day in Humboldt County. I hope CREG continues the educational approach. Knowledge, they say, is power.

This election is not just about the Balloon Track. The national revulsion at Bush could help the Neely/LaVallee/Glass/Kuhnel/Abrams campaigns. And though it hasn't been talked about, the recent police shooting, the second in six months, could help the more liberal candidates. When Cheri Lynn Moore was killed by EPD it pretty much re-elected Paul Gallegos. There could be a similar effect.

A lot of people care about Eureka, Some do it for love--some for money.
 
Carol Ann and Greg - As a fellow democrat I say "Go Away," you have done more harm than imaginable.

Myself and my wife are lifelong dems. We support the project. I am so tired of this that as a point of principal I am voting for everything that is NOT supported by you, your slate, DU and the HCDCC. Maybe a good trouncing will make you elitist so called fellow dems listen to the great group of dems in this county instead of trying to shove your idea of the party down our throats.
 
"1. First, does anyone in this household work for a radio station, a television station, a newspaper, an advertising agency, for an elected official, or as a paid political campaign worker?"

I wonder why they didn't ask if anyone in the household is a blogger?
 
Carol Ann said
"How so neocon-like to attack your alleged opponent (CREG) as you are begin scrutinized (HBC). As I wrote before, next Tuesday will be the real poll."

Well Carol Ann, I agree that the real poll will be next tuesday, but, wow, how NeoEcoLib of you to attack someone (not me) who asks questions of CREG...oh, is also an attack to ask them to release the full results of THEIR poll? Shameful and pathetic.
 
Carol Ann and Greg - As a fellow democrat I say "Go Away," you have done more harm than imaginable.

-----------------------

And to you, we say "Show Up". Carol and I have supported almost every Democratic function around here for the last three years, and these comments usually come from people who (guess what?) we have never seen at any meetings or events. The anonymity of the internet. Gotta love it. Anyway, you aren't going to bully me and Carol into going anywhere, anonymous or not.
 
Boo! It must feel great hiding behind a cloak of anonymity and making swipes at us on Halloween, 8:17 and 9:03. Not scared by you either.
 
Jeez Carol Ann - get a grip...hate criticism do you. Well guess what I am 8:17 NOT 9:03....different people Carol and Greg, who both see thru you. Sorry the truth hurts, but thats just what happens in the real world.

Taking swipes at you on Halloween is just the day of the week that you decided to blog. If you don't like it, don't blog today.
 
PS: Greg, bullshit. You don't give a rats ass about who shows up or who writes or whatever. And every dem who has tried to tell you, your wife and her compadres on the HCDCC has been railroaded. This simple fact of the matter is that the dem party is an umbrella party that covers itself over very diverse opinions. Instead of recognizing that you folk try and cram your philosophies down others throats and this has basically "neutered" the party. So you have been ok up in the local elections over the last fourt years...look at what that stupid philosophy has done on the state and national level. It is because of close minded jerks like you that the party has polarized and other dems have actually voted for Arnold and George W on the basis that they are the lesser of two evils.

I would have cheerfully and strongly supported Wesly. Can't do it with the lunatic Angelides...so where does that leave us moderate dems....you got it, now we have Arnold for 4 more years because you jerks won't run anyone reasonable and moderate. Go congratulate yourselves.
 
You don't scare me either, 10:06. Take a nap. Boo to you, too.
 
"It is because of close minded jerks like you that the party has polarized and other dems have actually voted for Arnold and George W on the basis that they are the lesser of two evils."

Whew. Now Dubya is our fault? And the War for Oil? That, too? My, you HAVE been reading your Republican talking points. For more of my closed-mindedness, feel free to read:

http://greglist.blogspot.com/

PS - You might be right about Westly v. Angelides, who knows?

PPS - Please be kind to Carol.
 
Well, I AM 9:03, and all I see from Carol Ann is a nonresponse - all you do is claim that you are being attacked, this why insulting others with names to further dehumanize, and therefore make it easier to attack (neocon) - I see you dont like it when you are called an NeoEcoLib, but hey, if the shoe fits...

Still havent answered my query as to why it is somehow an attack to ask CREG for full disclosure of their poll.
 
I do not mind being called a NeoEcoLib. Sticks and stones may break my bones, but names will never hurt me.

Don't know anymore than you regarding the CREG poll, but that is way old news.
 
No Carol Ann, its NOT old news...the point is they have NOT released the complete poll or the results of said poll.
Still waiting dear.
 
Carol Ann - grow up...sticks and stones - get a grip woman.

No wonder you seem so out there....You Are Out There!
 
Still waiting for you to regale us with the COMPLETE CREG poll questions and results, Carol Ann, Dear...and no, its not "old news" it hasnt yet been shared with the public, now has it???
 
still waiting, dear...
 
Well, I think you've been ditched.
 
yes, it does seem that way, doesnt it...
 
ohhh carol ann.......where are you??

Still waiting for you to regale us with the COMPLETE CREG poll questions and results, Carol Ann, Dear...and no, its not "old news" it hasnt yet been shared with the public, now has it???
 
Carol Ann seems to be stuck in the TV with the Poltergeist.
 
Carol Ann does not like scary movies. Political reality is tough enough. I saw the so-called CREG poll results. Everything important about the issues at hand was released way back when, but there were other questions in the survey that were not relevant. It was a multiple-issue survey. So, if you want to claim the results were selectively released, you would be correct. On the other hand, only one poll really matters at this point: Tuesday's election.

Now, if you are going to insult my wife, please allow me to have your name. Thank you.

You may now go ahead and demonize/ostracize/marinalize. Scare us. Good grief.
 
Greg - CREG did not release all of the balloon tract questions. They asked a series of three or four questions. The only released the one that read something like "Do you think that the last piece of waterfront land is a good place for a big box"

They did not release the more nuetral results...
 
Greg,
So you are saying if your candidates do not win tuesday then thats it for you? suurrre, and i've got a bridge to sell you if you think I believe that.
I havent seen anyone here calling your wife names, she of the "neocon" name calling insults...All you do are deflecting, by trying to point out perceived slights, when in fact you admit that yes, I am correct. Wasnt it you who brought the humboldt business council poll scorn, calling it a "push poll"?

At least we got to see it, and are you going to say that the CREG poll wasnt?

I truly have no problems with those having differing opionions, but consistency is something we should all strive for, and you and your wife are sadly lacking in that department.
 
By consistent, I assume you mean like "stay the course"? The rest of your spiel is out of Karl Rove's textbook, too.

Don't put words into my mouth. I didn't say any of it would be "it" for me.

The weak, last-minute attempts to smear CREG aren't playing with the public. CREG is the real thing - all 1200 of us. The only people who don't "get it" about the Balloon Tract issue seem to be people put their own pocketbooks first, period. Yes, there are a lot of them. I have seen Eureka go nuts over a new chain buffet, and I'm sure many people want a Home Depot, no matter where they want to locate. It's a values campaign.

It's okay to disagree with me. I have my own selfish perspectives. Some of us are stubborn about participatory democracy. See you November 8.
 
Hey Greg - last time I looked we were a democratic republic. Should we change that now to suit you and have a pure participatory democracy. Seems to me de Tocqueville did say something very poignant about the tyranny of the majority.
 
Greg, there you go again, deflecting. Nobody here is trying to "smear" CREG, we just want the full results of the poll. That is in no way a smear. And yes you highlight your inconsistency when you say the the only poll that matters is next tuesday - again, if the candidates you do NOT support win, are you going to give up on the causes you support? I thought not...
No, being consistent does not mean "staying the course" ala Karl Rove, it means wanting to see the results of both the CREG poll and the HBC poll, without demeaning/discounting the HBC poll as a push poll, while the CREG poll was obviously the same.

Consistency is acknoweldging the foibles of both sides, even when its the side you support.
I've been here a long time Greg, and I too have seen the cars lined up on the side of the cemetery as they waited for four hours in line to by a garden hose at the grand opening of Kmart.

You frame this as a "Values" issue, I think it's more of a "Choice" issue. By assigning this as a values issue, you try and take the moral highground, but its really about choice.
 
CREG has not released the whole poll. They released one isolated question out of context to sway people's opinions.

Early someone said it was a multi-issue poll - they polled the city council races, etc. Then they used that info to recruit anti-arkley candidates. If they act like a PAK - shouldn't they report like a PAK?
 
"Should we change that now to suit you and have a pure participatory democracy."

Hey, I didn't say "pure", but thanks for mentioning "democratic republic". One school of right-wing thought is that we are a republic and NOT a democracy. Glad to see you remember the "democratic" part. But de Toqueville? Please continue.
 
Let's start here

"I confess that in America I saw more than America; I sought the image of democracy itself, with its inclinations, its character, its prejudices, and its passions, in order to learn what we have to fear or hope from its progress."


~ Alexis de Tocqueville
 
Actually, folks, you haven't seen "it". You've only seen a few of the dozens of questions asked.

Why not share those questions and responses?
 
well, you do notice that greg is now deflecting and ignoring the question...
 
The question of why the HBC claims to know every donor but won't prove it???

Like they claim their poll supported their stand, but they won't release most of it?
 
well, the hbc in fact DID release their poll...CREG hasnt.

I want to be consistent, though when it comes to see the donors and who they are donating to. I'd like to see HBC AND CREG release the information...
 
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